Is 2026 a Good Time To Move? What To Expect From the 2026 Housing Market

If you’ve been watching the housing market the last few years, it’s felt like a tug-of-war: low inventory, higher mortgage rates, and stubborn prices on one side… and frustrated buyers and sellers on the other.

The good news is most major housing forecasts point to 2026 as a year of slow but healthier movement. More homes hitting the market, more buyers able to participate, and a little more balance than we’ve seen in a while.

Let’s walk through a few solid reasons to feel hopeful about the 2026 housing market.

1. More Homes Are Expected To Change Hands

For several years, we’ve been dealing with what economists call the “lock-in effect” – homeowners sitting tight because they don’t want to give up their ultra-low mortgage rates. That’s kept inventory painfully low.

There are signs that’s starting to break: The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) expects existing home sales to rise about 14% in 2026, helped by more inventory and a fading lock-in effect. And a roundup of forecasts from multiple research groups shows almost all of them projecting more home sales in 2026 than in 2025.

For buyers in places like Ellendale, Oakes, Edgeley, Ashley, Kulm, Forman, and the Bismarck area, more listings mean you’re less likely to be stuck choosing between two homes that don’t really fit.

2. Home Prices Look Stable, Not Scary

No, we’re not heading back to “fire sale” pricing. But we’re also not in the double-digit bidding-war era either. Most major forecasts for 2026 line up around modest price growth:

• Zillow expects U.S. home values to rise about 1–2% in 2026, after mostly flat growth in 2025.

• A review of 24 different forecast models found the average prediction for 2026 home prices is around +1.4% nationally.

• Redfin’s 2026 outlook calls for roughly 1% price growth, noting that wages are expected to grow faster than home prices, which slowly improves affordability.

• NAR’s chief economist is projecting 2–3% price growth, roughly in line with inflation – not a crash, but not runaway appreciation either.

That’s actually a good combo: Sellers keep their equity and can still sell at solid prices. And buyers aren’t chasing prices up at 10–15% a year. The market looks more stable and predictable, which is what you want when you’re making a long-term decision.

3. Mortgage Rates Are Expected To Ease (Even If They Don’t Plunge)

Will we see 3% mortgage rates again? Probably not. Do they need to go that low for the market to improve? Thankfully, no.

Several major forecasters see gradual improvement in 2026:

• Fannie Mae projects the average 30-year mortgage rate landing around 5.9–6.0% by late 2026.

• S&P Global Ratings expects the 30-year fixed rate to average about 5.8% in 2026, down from higher levels in prior years.

• A number of outlooks (NAR, lenders, and national banks) are using scenarios with slightly lower rates plus more inventory as the basis for their “more sales in 2026” predictions.

Even a move from the mid-6s into the high-5s can make a noticeable difference in monthly payments and qualification power for many buyers.

For North Dakota buyers, that can be the difference between settling for a smaller or less functional home, and being able to afford the home and location that actually fit your life.

4. More Financing Activity = A More Active Market

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects total single-family mortgage originations to increase about 8% in 2026, mostly driven by more home purchase activity.

Fannie Mae also expects more sales and more originations as we move through 2026, especially if rates drift down as projected.

That matters because:

• More loans usually mean more people moving.

• More transactions mean more opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

• It signals that the market is thawing, not freezing.

2026 looks more like a year where people finally act on the life changes they’ve been talking about for a while.

What This Means For You In 2026

If you’ve been on the fence about buying or selling around Ellendale or the surrounding south-central North Dakota communities, 2026 might be the year to stop “waiting for perfect” and start planning for what’s realistic and doable:

• Thinking about selling?
  You may benefit from more active buyers, modestly rising prices, and less competition from desperate sellers.

• Thinking about buying?
  You’re likely to see more homes to choose from, slightly better rate options than the recent peaks, and a less frantic pace than the pandemic years.

Ready To Talk About Your 2026 Move?

Every situation is unique, and national headlines don’t tell your whole story. If you’d like a local perspective on how the 2026 housing market could affect your plans, I’m happy to help.

We can look at what your current home might realistically sell for and what buying options look like in your price range.

No pressure, just a clear, local view so you can decide what’s right for you.